Performance of State?of?the?Art C3S European Seasonal Climate Forecast Models for Mean and Extreme Precipitation Over Africa

Evaluation of the mean and extreme precipitation regimes from the ENSEMBLES regional climate multimodel simulations over Spain

[1] A state‐of‐the‐art ensemble of regional climate model (RCM) simulations provided by the European Union–funded project ENSEMBLES is used to test the ability of RCMs to reproduce the mean and extreme precipitation regimes over Spain. To this aim, ERA‐40– driven simulations at 25 km resolution are compared with the 20 km daily precipitation grid Spain02, considering the period 1960–2000. This ...

verification of mm5 forecast precipitation over iran

during the last several years, application of numerical weather prediction models in the country have become common in both research and operations, even though systematic verification of the models’ results using statistical methods has rarely been conducted (sodoudi et al. 2009). this paper aims at comparing the mm5 24-hour precipitation forecasts with the corresponding observations using sta...

Probabilistic forecast of daily areal precipitation focusing on extreme events

A dynamical downscaling scheme is usually used to provide a short range flood forecasting system with highresolved precipitation fields. Unfortunately, a single forecast of this scheme has a high uncertainty concerning intensity and location especially during extreme events. Alternatively, statistical downscaling techniques like the analogue method can be used which can supply a probabilistic f...

Extreme value theory for precipitation: sensitivity analysis for climate change

Extreme value theory for the maximum of a time series of daily precipitation amount is described. A chain-dependent process is assumed as a stochastic model for daily precipitation, with the intensity distribution being the gamma. To examine how the e€ective return period for extreme high precipitation amounts would change as the parameters of the chain-dependent process change (i.e., probabili...

Temporal and spatial distribution of extreme precipitation indices over the lake Urmia Basin, Iran